Career Resurrected: Farm to Treble (now with more analytics)

[BatiGoal]

I'm using Berghuis as a Winger because I need him to put crosses into the box for my striker, but I agree he looks a fine IF.

A little surprised you can afford his wages tho coming off the EPL? But then again, you've been managing this Spanish dwarf for some time so the club's finances must be tiptop by now.

[veerus]

He didn't ask for much - I'm paying him $14.25k/wk ($750k/yr). Which still makes him my 2nd highest paid player.

Do you mess around with player interactions to keep the morale up? He doesn't really seem to respond to anything I try so I'm wondering if that's how he is or if that's how he is on MY save...

But yes, our finances are pretty decent. We managed to sell two players for a total of 10mil last season and got 18mil from the board at the start of this season. Since I was able to pick up some players on a free or for cheap last summer, most of that money went into wages.

[BatiGoal]

I never bother with any of the player interactions, only respond to media questions. I always go with 'motivational' badge with the assumption that players give their best during training sessions and games as well as have a general decent morale. No idea if it actually works that way but it makes sense to me so I fly with it

[FuddledFox]

Thank you for pointing me towards this @veerus over on my 3 at back article. I have been reading it on and off all day and really enjoy your style of writing and presenting. I plan on doing a long career on FMM18 which I will record on Vibe and I hope I make it half as interesting as you have made this career so far.

[veerus]

1 hour ago, fuddledfoxFM said:

Thank you for pointing me towards this @veerus over on my 3 at back article. I have been reading it on and off all day and really enjoy your style of writing and presenting. I plan on doing a long career on FMM18 which I will record on Vibe and I hope I make it half as interesting as you have made this career so far.

Glad you enjoyed it.  I'm hoping to finish the current season this weekend and will have another update soon along with some stats on the effectiveness of the current "snowman" 3222 formation I'm using.

[veerus]

In real life, the first season for a newly promoted team is a time of uncertainty and worries. But in FMM, the first season after promotion can have a wide range of possibilities. I set a goal of finishing 12th and, in my last update, mentioned that a 7th place was within reach. My friend, BatiGoal, had his doubts about that so let's see if the mighty El Ejido were able to prove him wrong...

Spoiler

I presented the Snowman 32221 formation in the last update and it is one I kept using for the rest of the season. So let's review our journey to end this season.

As far as narratives go, there was one match that I would call season defining.

Others would call it lucky.  Either way, this win was huge!

The mood soon would turn sour as the star of that match decided that we were too small for him.

That player of the month award really went to his head...

Undeterred by this distraction, we kept playing well. After losing some matches in the dying seconds earlier in the season, it was exciting to win a couple in the same manner.

Boom! For those keeping score, that's a double against Sevilla this season!

Our star striker Motta also had a hat trick in the last away game which would prove to be huge for him individually (more on that later).

And this brings us to the last game of the season against Barcelona, who have won the  league title by this point. This is a good time to mention that coming into this match, we were on a 10-game streak without a loss and in a tie for 7th place with Vigo. Due to tiebreak rules, our result needed to be better than theirs to secure 7th place and qualify for Europe.

Our want-away winger, Berhuis, opened the scoring late in the first half! (For the record, we scored first vs Barca in both matches... Meaningless, I know, but it's the little things that matter sometimes)

At the time, Vigo was losing and I started to believe.....

Hah! Suck it BatiGoal!  

So let's review some end of season standings and stats.

Spoiler

This is beyond any expectations for our boys! Europa league qualification secured! 34 goals allowed - only 3 more than champions Barcelona. And an 11-match streak without a loss to end the season and catapult us to this position!

Let's also talk about individual awards. Motta didn't start playing as the sole striker until about 10 matches into the season which makes his achievements this season all the more impressive!

Golden boot in his first season in Spain! What a beast!

Well deserved awards for our youngsters!!!

I received some recognition too.

Lastly, a word about transfers.

Spoiler

With our league position secured, I spent much of the second half of the season scouting for depth. I was able to pick up 6 players (5 for free) to bolster the squad for the next season before the transfer window even began.

Meet my backup plan to the want-away star winger Berghuis. Not as good but hopefully IT will juice him up!

I also noticed an interesting discrepancy in scouting potential stars as compared to my assistant's assessment. Of the 6 players I signed, 3 were scouted by a silver badge scout. The scout's PA on those players was 1.5 stars on average higher than my assistant's. The other 3 were scouted by a gold badge scout and his PA was mixed (1 higher, 1 lower, 1 same) as my gold badge assistant.

Moral of the story - be careful to not overpay in the transfer market!!

Thanks for reading everybody. I'll follow up with a stats post covering the whole season in a couple days. 

[FuddledFox]

Wow great 1st season all based on that rock solid defence looking at the goals conceded column. Good luck in europe

[BatiGoal]

Not bad

Your low-ish GF could become a worry for next season as you can't continue to rely on a solid defence alone so definitely need extra goals there. Rusnak and Grenier will hopefully provide that little extra that's been missing. But Fuddledfox is right, the GA is a real solid base to build upon. Let's pray "The Snowman" + backline are as effective next campaign as they were last's.

Another thing that struck me was the low number of 'most assists'. I thought perhaps you'd sold your "assist guy" in the Jan. window or assists must come from litterally everywhere on the pitch and it's equally divided over all att.minded players. But then again, it makes sense having a low GF. Still 7 assists is probably the lowest amount I've seen. With having a deserved go in Europe next season I hope you find a way to improve on that frontline without giving away too much at the back.

Great first season in the top division, but still lots of work that needs to be done. Having that said, go on.. go out and celebrate.. you deserve credit for masterminding a 7th spot finish

 

[veerus]

Ah yes! I knew I forgot something - the team summary!

Spoiler

As you can see, assists came from all over the place. Everyone shown on this screenshot, except Fernandez, played midfield(DLP mostly) or in attack. Keep in mind that for most of the season we played with 3 dedicated attackers so many goals were a bit scrappy or lucky. 

The challenge for next season will be to increase emphasis on attack while staying solid at the back as my team continues to improve. However I have been unable to attract a great pure striker yet since they're so expensive. Even Motta was brought in to play AP originally but I'm glad he turned into a beast in front of goal. 

[BatiGoal]

10 hours ago, veerus said:

However I have been unable to attract a great pure striker yet since they're so expensive. Even Motta was brought in to play AP originally but I'm glad he turned into a beast in front of goal. 

Yeah, I was going to say - Have you tried retraining AMCs into FCs? My current 1KC main man is actually a CM turned CF.

[veerus]

I wanted to follow up with some analytics on our first season in the La Liga.  Please note that the stats that follow are for the 38 league games only.  I've decided to focus on league performance for ease of comparison across seasons so it doesn't get distorted by various cup competitions.  While I'm collecting the stats for everything, the charts that I am presenting will only be for our La Liga games.  Of course, if something catches my eye in one of the other competitions, I'll be sure to discuss that as well.

Spoiler

I've shown this graph before and I think it will be interesting to track this over the next couple seasons as my team continues to (hopefully) improve.  This is a 7-game moving average of our xG for and against.  I'd like to point out that this season was front loaded with some tough match-ups against teams in the top half of the table which somewhat explains the dips at the start and halfway points.  Switching to 3 LDs & 2 DLPs definitely stabilized the xG after peaking at over 2 per game.

Here's another table I like to look at.

While we underperformed our xG by nearly 9 goals, the key figure that sticks out is that the AI underperformed their xG by 22(!) goals.  I've talked several times about my defensive setup and how well it seems to be working in this year's match engine and this is biggest proof yet.  Defensively, we allowed less than 1 CCC per game on average over the entire season which means the AI was rarely able to work the ball into dangerous positions in front of goal.  This average is even lower when excluding the games played in a 4411 formation at the start of the season.

Keep in mind, all this was while we were only favored in 11 matches (out of 38).  In matches when we weren't favored, we still only allowed an average of 1.07 CCC.  Here's another fun stat - in the four matches against Real Madrid & Barcelona, we only collected 1 point (on the last day of the season).  However, despite being outscored 3-7 and 3.2-9.9 xG, we still only allowed 1.5 CCC per game in those matches.

And by the way, in the matches we were favored, we went 6-4-1.  Excluding the loss, we outscored our opponents 13-6 and 20.3-11.2 xG in those 10 matches.

See you next season!

[FuddledFox]

3 hours ago, veerus said:

I wanted to follow up with some analytics on our first season in the La Liga.  Please note that the stats that follow are for the 38 league games only.  I've decided to focus on league performance for ease of comparison across seasons so it doesn't get distorted by various cup competitions.  While I'm collecting the stats for everything, the charts that I am presenting will only be for our La Liga games.  Of course, if something catches my eye in one of the other competitions, I'll be sure to discuss that as well.

  Hide contents

I've shown this graph before and I think it will be interesting to track this over the next couple seasons as my team continues to (hopefully) improve.  This is a 7-game moving average of our xG for and against.  I'd like to point out that this season was front loaded with some tough match-ups against teams in the top half of the table which somewhat explains the dips at the start and halfway points.  Switching to 3 LDs & 2 DLPs definitely stabilized the xG after peaking at over 2 per game.

Here's another table I like to look at.

While we underperformed our xG by nearly 9 goals, the key figure that sticks out is that the AI underperformed their xG by 22(!) goals.  I've talked several times about my defensive setup and how well it seems to be working in this year's match engine and this is biggest proof yet.  Defensively, we allowed less than 1 CCC per game on average over the entire season which means the AI was rarely able to work the ball into dangerous positions in front of goal.  This average is even lower when excluding the games played in a 4411 formation at the start of the season.

Keep in mind, all this was while we were only favored in 11 matches (out of 38).  In matches when we weren't favored, we still only allowed an average of 1.07 CCC.  Here's another fun stat - in the four matches against Real Madrid & Barcelona, we only collected 1 point (on the last day of the season).  However, despite being outscored 3-7 and 3.2-9.9 xG, we still only allowed 1.5 CCC per game in those matches.

And by the way, in the matches we were favored, we went 6-4-1.  Excluding the loss, we outscored our opponents 13-6 and 20.3-11.2 xG in those 10 matches.

See you next season!

So can we expect this defensive approach to continue next season? Great analysis by the way.

[BatiGoal]

Can I call you Mr. Statsman from now on

Couldn't do it myself but quite enjoyed reading those numbers. Great stuff!

[veerus]

On 9/7/2017 at 03:05, fuddledfoxFM said:

So can we expect this defensive approach to continue next season? 

No!  Well, I hope not.  The super defensive approach was a direct result of how my team was built.  Specifically, defenders are cheaper than attackers so I was able to amass a lot more good backline players on a limited budget than the frontline players.  Over the next couple seasons, I hope to be able to upgrade my squad to allow me to field more offensively-minded formations because who doesn't like scoring a lot of goals?   But at the same time, I like having a good defensive record so I will not go "full BatiGoal".   My current plan is to keep a similar formation but change one of the DLPs to a BBM or AP to provide more help in attack.

On 9/7/2017 at 12:26, BatiGoal said:

Can I call you Mr. Statsman from now on

Go for it.  

[BatiGoal]

9 hours ago, veerus said:

Specifically, defenders are cheaper than attackers so I was able to amass a lot more good backline players on a limited budget than the frontline players.

Good point btw. Especially in the first seasons playing smaller teams I'm often faced with the dilemma to get either 1 solid forward or quality att.midfielder or 2-3 good defenders. In the end the choice is easy and rings true what they say we need to "build" the team from defence up.

[veerus]

As always, sorry for the delay but this update covers more matches than usual. 

But first, let's recall where we were. We earned 7th place last season and a surprise qualification into the Europa League's early playoff rounds. Because of this, our season began weeks before the La Liga started.

I wanted to go deep in all competitions this season so I needed depth for the team. I'll spare you with the transfer screenshots but we had a very successful transfer window. We added new starting wingbacks for both flanks, a couple midfielders (one on loan), and a real striker with a 19+ in shooting. Unfortunately the striker can't stay healthy suffering two injuries already - he's only been in peak form for about 3 weeks out of the first 4 months which this update covers. I also sold all the players who had no chance of starting which did wonders for our budget! So let's dive in.

Spoiler

Our success on the field meant that the board loves me. In this calendar year 2020, we've been able to upgrade training facilities (2x), youth (1x), and stadium (1x). 

New signings caused an inflation in our wage bill which caused our stars (Motta/Rami) from last season to get a little restless. To prevent another Berhuis situation from last season, I adjust my budget and raise their salary about 4x. Now that we're playing in Europe, wage demands are starting to get out of hand but I couldn't not pay my top guys!

So anyway, as I was saying, Europa League qualification (aka Euro Cup) started early and we, somewhat unexpectedly at this point, breezed through the two playoff rounds. When the groups were drawn, I was relieved to dodge major teams like Tottenham, Real Madrid, and Leverkusen.

Our schedule was starting to get heavy - playing 2 matches per week almost every week in September-December. Would our team depth be enough?

Before I go any further, let's discuss my favorite topic - tactics. Since the beginning of this career, I've been very defensive. Would the trend continue now that El Ejido is a top 7 La Liga team?..

Spoiler

Hell no! I like seeing my team score goals just like everyone else here!

It has been my long standing belief that this engine loves the 442-attacking formation (aka 4222 or 424) - as long as you're not doing a specific scoring challenge that is. Since I was able to pick up some more offensive firepower, this was the first formation I tried. And I was happy to see that the team responded to it!

In the few big games early on, I reverted to my defensive Snowman formation (32221) from last season and each time it didn't work! (not sure why..) I tried it in 3 games - two were losses and one was a narrow win after a late switch to a 4222!

So that sealed it! 4222 was going to take us to glory. With the tactic set, let's look at some highlights.

..... These were back to back. I was shocked! This formation was exceeding all of my expectations! We were challenging for first place by November! And it all culminated in a home match against Barcelona...

This Barcelona match holds a special place in this season's story so it gets its own paragraph.

Spoiler

Dethroning Barcelona was one of my original goals when I started this career. A point against them on the last day of last season sealed Euro Cup qualification but, in truth, we were probably a little lucky.

This season, the story is different. We're steamrolling teams and a result here would see us in sole possession of 1st place! I made a small tweak to the formation (gotta get my 2x DLP in action for the big games)...

...and we crushed them!

Tiki-taka'd them to death with short passing. Just look at those pass numbers!

We've also been getting "passed out of defense well" messages quite often despite playing LDs, @BatiGoal!!

Anyway, that win put us in first for good!

This update covers matches through the end of December so let's see where the New Year finds us.

Spoiler

I'll be honest, I did not expect this. Not even close.

By the way, both losses came when starting with the 32221 (Snowman) and a late switch to 4222 couldn't rescue the situation.

Yep! We're in 1st with a 9 point lead with less than half a season gone by! Also note that we have the most goals scored, fewest goals conceded, and best GD! Oh, and Motta is the league's leading scorer, again!

I know it's early but it would be a monumental collapse if we didn't win the league...

...feels weird saying that with 21 matches left to play.

So it's pretty clear that we've been doing well. Let's take a look at the stats just to see how much we've improved from last year.

Spoiler

Last season, El Ejido was just a tiny, boring, newly promoted team averaging 1.1 non-penalty goals per game and generating a measly 1.34 xG per game.

This season, we're flying high as a mighty, we're playing in Europe (but on Thursdays), El Ejido! We're averaging 2.3 NPG per game and generating a whopping 2.44 xG per game! We're generating nearly 5 more shots per game (3 more shots on goal). The improvement is remarkable!

Lastly, our defensive numbers are unchanged despite playing with one less defender and one less DLP.

A full analysis will follow at the end of the season.

As usual, I like to end with tidbits that didn't make it into the narrative.

Spoiler

Berghuis is still unhappy and wants to move but no one has come calling so far. His stats also haven't moved much so he's continued to feature prominently on match days as I've had no reason to transfer list him.

You may recall me signing an expected replacement for Berghuis - Albert Rusnak on a FREE! (pro tip: AI is really bad at managing player contracts so Bosman signings are key to building a great squad on a budget but you gotta do it early!)

Rusnak also turned into a beast (yay for intensive training) and is working really well with Berghuis.

Not as good stat-wise but he can't stop scoring as the IF.

That list is a mix of old regulars, new faces, and Tomeu Pazos - an 18yo youngster I signed a couple years ago who's starting to come into his own!

Speaking of youngsters, I recently signed another and my scouts are in love with him!

Whose regen will he end up being?

 

[AzmiG26]

Just caught up and a great career so far! Really like the tactic and stat talk too!

 

[FuddledFox]

Excellent start to the season. Great to see to team evolve from a defensive team into the most attacking team in the league. Great stuff as usual