2015 Analysis: Do Arsenal need another striker?

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Do Arsenal need another striker: A tactical analysis (FMH 2015 version)

The transfer window is over and Arsenal have the distinction of being the only club in the top 5 leagues not to sign an outfield player (Jeff Reine-Adelaide doesn't count). People are wondering if Wenger has finally lost it this time. Hence, the objective of this analysis is to see if:

1. Arsenal can rely on Giroud and Walcott as the main strikers of the squad.
2. Giroud and Walcott are prolific enough scorers.

For the purpose of the analysis, I shall attempt to play like how Arsenal plays in real life. This means:

1. No additional signings but Cech.
2. Recreate tactics used by Arsenal as much as possible.
3. Only Giroud or Walcott in the centre-forward position. If both are injured, then Welbeck goes there.

Tactics:

Tactics (plan A)

Arsenal are a fluid attacking side and the formation should reflect that. I know that this may not be 100% accurate as I also need to take into account players and injuries but this is the general idea.

Plan B

Surprised? As seen from last season, Wenger FINALLY came up with a plan B, which was used pretty effectively against Man City. These are the 2 formations that will be used.

And this is the team instructions. Pretty standard for Arsenal, really.

 

 

 

Results after 10 games:

 

I'm at 1/3 of the season, so I guess it would be a good time for an update. Arsenal being Arsenal, they can definitely score but they still need work defensively. The game plan now seems to be outscoring the opponent, which is ok so far...

Here's Giroud played as a Target Man. Not too shabby, really.

And here's Walcott as a Poacher.

Verdict: looks promising so far.

Final Results:

 

I won the legaue with 2 games to spare, so I'll stop here. Let's see how well Giroud and Walcott did. I'll be using figures from whoscored.com as well.

34 goals is not a bad return though in real life, Giroud would probably get 20 goals or so if he were uninjured the whole season. Which makes it a goal every two games or so, which is decent. In the 2014/2015 season, he scored 15 goals in all competitions in 23 appearances (6 as a sub) but was injured for 3 months or so, so the numbers look pretty accurate.

 

 

 

13 goals in 23 appearances may look good but half those appearances were against lower league or weaker teams. Looking through my save, he barely scored against teams in the top half of the table. 

So back to the premise of: Do Arsenal need another striker?

I would say yes, but to replace Walcott and not Giroud. As to why this is so, we need to look at more figures.

Let us assume that Giroud scores 20 goals or so, which is more realistic. Looking at Sanchez, Ozil, Cazorla and Ramsey, they scored a combined 44 goals between them. Ramsey could have scored more but for what I dub the Arsenal Injury Curse (AIC). In the 2014/2015 season, they scored 38. Since Ramsey and Ozil were injured for some time last season, they would have contributed more if they were fully fit, possibly matching the numbers from FMH. The 4 of them effectively make up for the lack of goals from Giroud and especially Walcott.

Now this was a surprise. Giroud was second in terms of assists, same as Sanchez. Again, he is nowhere as prolific as in real life (3 last season), but it shows that he can contribute in terms of assists. 

So.....

What Giroud brings to the squad: He's a big, strong guy who is good in the air, able to hold the ball reasonably well. He draws defenders to him, effectively freeing up space for people like Sanchez and Ramsey to exploit and take pot shots at the goal. His lack of goals is offset by creating space for the attacking midfielders to score.

What Walcott brings to the squad: Other than pace, not much else really. He can be used in the AMR position but the Ox performs better there. Even Welbeck can be retrained to play in the right.

Conclusion: Another striker (Benzema?) who is an upgrade to Walcott will help. He can be played as a plan A while Giroud can be  a plan B or vice-versa.

Some random final thoughts:

1. Sanchez is hax. Seriously, he's a game changer. I've half a mind to play him and Giroud 2 up, but that would be un-Arsenal.
2. Arsenal is a pacey squad. Bellerin (20) and Ox (19) down the right is scary. It's the same with Gibbs (19) and Sanchez (17) down the left. It's like having Usain Bolt on the team. In fact, the squad has players in every position that have at least 14 pace.

Edited September 4, 2015 by zerose
final results

[Ashez]

Interesting idea, I'm looking forward to more. 

[Dec]

Great work, looks like Giroud needs a major downgrade though, that is too overpowered.

[Jose Moreno]

Great job there. But imo i dont think arsenal needs a striker as much as it needs a cdm or a defender. that coming from an arsenal fan

[phila]

Regarding the tactics shown above, are Arsenal playing much more biased to the left than previous years. Was looking at some of their action in the match against Liverpool and it seemed to me that Ozil was playing more of an AMCL and Ramsey had also shifted further to the left, forcing Liverpool to shift further to their right. Was this just a one off to try and expose Gomez or is that something they usually do?

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And the analysis is done! I've edited the first post. Had a lot of fun with it, really.

In response to phila, Arsenal does drift to the wings a fair bit. Ozil, as you have noticed, does drift left, which opens up space for Sanchez and Ramsey to exploit. Even Thierry Henry drifts to the left quite a bit. Arsenal's attacking midfielders are very mobile and fluid (coincidentally, they all have good movement scores in FMH), making good use of the space that the strikers open up. But of course, all the space in the world won't do the team any good if they can't score...

[pipaz4]

Great analysis mate, i do think Arsenal needs another striker, Giroud is not that good in real life as he is in the game, cheers.

[JustM1kePlays]

Amazing idea. Loving this experiment